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Let's play planning poker: likely to, bound to and may well for estimates

Planning poker is the setting for likely to, bound to and may well in this B2 English for IT lesson plan on saying how sure you are.

Grammar
A scale from be bound to through be likely to and may well to probably won't, with what follows each: It may well take a week.
Topic
Planning poker on a mobile team at Kestrel Cloud, a fictional startup, with words such as an outlier, a spread, a gut feeling and analysis paralysis.
Activities
The story of planning poker, a team's poker thread, a call between the outliers, self-checking drills, a chat, role cards, and a comment to write and record.

What's inside

  1. Chapter 1Warm-up: Pick a Card

    • PictureUnlock
    • Spin the wheel and answerSpin the wheelUnlock
    • Study the planning poker vocabularyVocabularyTry it
    • Look at the pictures and choose the wordChoose by pictureUnlock

  2. Chapter 2The Story: The Meeting That Went Nowhere

    • Read the story of planning pokerArticleUnlock
    • Choose the correct answer about the storyQuizUnlock

  3. Chapter 3At Work: MOB-417, Round Two

    • Read the team's planning poker threadReal-life documentTry it
    • True or false? Check the threadTrue or falseUnlock
    • Sort the phrases into the correct columns: what does the speaker do?Sort into columnsUnlock

  4. Chapter 4Listen: A 3 Meets a 13

    • Listen to Amara and Wes: a 3 meets a 13ListeningTry it
    • Transcript, for the teacherUnlock
    • Choose the correct answer about the callQuizUnlock

  5. Chapter 5Grammar: Bound to, Likely to, May Well

    • Study the scheme: how likely is it?Grammar schemeTry it
    • Sort the phrases into the correct columns: how likely is it?Sort into columnsUnlock
    • Fill in the gaps: rewrite each note with the word in bracketsFill in the gapsTry it
    • Choose the correct option to complete each sentenceChoose the optionUnlock
    • Choose the correct answer: say the percentage in wordsQuizUnlock
    • Drag the words into the gaps: a planning poker roundDrag and dropUnlock

  6. Chapter 6Speak Up: Defend Your Card

    • Choose the right replies: defend your 13ChatTry it
    • Open a box: your role in planning pokerOpen the boxUnlock

  7. Chapter 7Homework: Your Estimate, Your Reasons

    • Read your phrase bankReal-life documentUnlock
    • Do you remember? Choose the correct answerQuizUnlock
    • Is the sentence correct? True or falseTrue or falseUnlock
    • Match the beginnings and endingsMatchUnlock
    • Write your planning poker commentWriting, checked by the teacherUnlock
    • Record yourself defending your numberSpeaking, checked by the teacherUnlock

26 exercises in 7 chapters. Start a 7-day free trial to open all of them, copy any part into your own lessons, and teach the lesson live.

Vocabulary

12 words and phrases from the lesson, each with a picture and audio in edio.

+9 more with pictures and audio in the lessonMore words

  • a spread
  • an unknown
  • a gut feeling
  • a wild guess
  • analysis paralysis
  • justify
  • break down
  • talk through
  • settle on

Grammar: likelihood with bound to, likely to and may well

Expressing probability is half of an estimate: the number, then how sure you are of it. Following a planning poker round for an offline refunds list, learners rank each phrase from almost certain to unlikely, add what comes after it (to, that or the base verb) and place probably and definitely around will and won't.

Likelihood: say how sure you are about an estimate

From almost certain to almost certainly not: be bound to, be likely to, may well, there's a good chance, probably won't.

From almost certain to unlikely

Be bound to, be sure to and will definitely mean almost certain: Offline bugs are bound to show up on older phones. Be likely to, may well and there's a good chance mean probable, while be unlikely to, there's a slim chance and probably won't mean unlikely.

StructureHow sure?Example
be bound to + basealmost certainOffline bugs are bound to show up on older phones.
be sure / certain to + basealmost certainJordan is sure to find a few odd cases.
will definitely / certainly + basealmost certainThe spike will definitely take a full day.
be likely to + base; it's (highly) likely that…probableIt's highly likely that we'll show an old status.
there's a good / a fair chance (that)…probableThere's a good chance we can reuse the cache.
may well / might well / could well + baseprobableIt may well need more than a banner.
will probably + baseprobableIt will probably go into the next sprint.
be unlikely to + baseunlikelyIt's unlikely to fit in this sprint.
there's a slim chance (that)…; it's doubtful whether / that…unlikelyIt's doubtful whether our empty state works offline.
probably won't + baseunlikelyStatuses probably won't change often.
definitely / certainly won't + basealmost certainly notMerchants definitely won't issue refunds offline.

What comes next: to, that or the base verb?

Be likely, bound and sure take to: We're likely to need a spike. It's likely takes a that-clause, and a good chance takes (that) + clause, since a chance to finish means an opportunity. May well takes the bare verb, with no to: It may well take a week.

After…useExample
be likely / unlikely / bound / sure / certainto + baseWe're likely to need a spike.
it's likely / unlikely / doubtfulthat + clause (doubtful: also whether)It's likely that we'll need a spike.
there's a good / fair / slim chance(that) + clauseThere's a good chance (that) we'll finish early.
may well / might well / could wellbase, no toIt may well take a week.
willprobably / definitely + baseIt will probably be late.
won'tprobably / definitely BEFORE won'tIt probably won't be ready.

Probably and definitely

These adverbs go after will but in front of won't: It will probably be late. It probably won't be ready. It will be probably late is wrong. A good chance is a little stronger than a fair chance, and a slim chance is a small one.

Probably and definitely: where do they go?

After will, but before won't: It'll probably take a week. It probably won't be ready. A good chance is a bit stronger than a fair chance; a slim chance is a small one. In planning, a number plus how sure you are makes an honest estimate.

From the thread and the call

Each example is a line from the thread or the call: a tester sure that offline bugs are bound to appear, a developer who sees a good chance of reusing code, and a designer whose 3 is unlikely to survive.

  • Offline bugs are bound to show up on older Android phones.Jordan: almost certain
  • There's a good chance we can reuse most of that code.Iryna: probable
  • The first part may well be a five.Wes: probable
  • My three is unlikely to survive.Amara: unlikely
  • It's doubtful whether Kenji expected us to agree this fast.Wes: unlikely

Typical mistakes

  • It's likely to that we'll need a spike.

    It's likely that we'll need a spike. / We're likely to need a spike.

    it's likely + that-clause, or subject + be likely to + base

  • There's a good chance to finish by Friday. (= we'll probably finish)

    There's a good chance (that) we'll finish by Friday.

    for likelihood, chance + (that) + clause; “a chance to do” means an opportunity

  • It will be probably late.

    It will probably be late.

    probably goes right after will

  • We're bound finish late. / It may well to slip.

    We're bound to finish late. / It may well slip.

    bound to + base; may well + base, with no to

More lessons on this grammar: Future tenses lessons and exercises

Try the likely to and bound to exercises

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What's in the lesson

  • 14 auto-checked exercises
  • 2 games
  • 2 teacher-checked tasks
  • 2 real-life documents
  • 1 article
  • 1 grammar scheme
  • 1 set of word cards
  • 1 audio clip
  • 1 picture
  • 1 transcript

The main objectives of this lesson are to:

  • say how sure you are on a scale: Offline bugs are bound to show up. It may well take a week. It probably won't fit in this sprint.
  • put the right words after each phrase: We're likely to need a spike. It's likely that we'll need a spike.
  • place probably and definitely after will and before won't: It will probably be late. It probably won't be ready.
  • estimate a feature in planning poker and defend your card: My main concern is the old refund screen.

Lesson 3 of English for IT B2 · Beyond the Code closes Planning and estimates with the unit's work task, estimating a feature in planning poker and defending the number, and a review of the unit's grammar. It builds on the approximate numbers of lesson 1, the future forms of lesson 2 and might for possibility from A2.1 lesson 31; modals of deduction follow in lesson 11.

A wheel of questions about how learners' teams estimate opens the lesson, then twelve words with pictures and audio and a picture quiz. The story tells how a stalled planning meeting in Utah became a card game in 2002. At work, learners read a team's planning poker thread and sort its phrases by what the speaker does; in the AI-voiced call, a designer's 3 and a developer's 13 meet and settle on a smaller story.

Past the scheme, the grammar chapter's five self-checking drills include a sort by likelihood and a quiz that turns percentages into words. In the chat, learners defend the only 13 to their tech lead, and the open boxes are role cards for a full round, from developer and tester to product owner and Scrum Master.

After a phrase bank, two homework exercises review the whole unit, from give or take to will have finished, and a match of beginnings and endings recycles the words; all three check themselves. Learners write a planning poker comment and record themselves defending their number for the teacher to review.

Grammar:
likelihood · be bound to / be likely to / may well
Topic:
planning poker · estimates · agile planning

Teaching tips

  • Play a real round with paper cards: hand out 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and 13, read a story from the group's own backlog, and have everyone reveal at once before the outliers explain.
  • Keep a likelihood scale on the wall, from bound to at the top to definitely won't at the bottom, and point at it whenever a learner gives a bare number.
  • Pause the call after the second reason for the 13: ask whether the designer's 3 will survive, then play the end to hear who moved and why.
  • One-to-one, take the tech lead's seat: question the learner's 13 as the chat does, with What would bring your number down?, and let the learner answer with a split or a spike.

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The whole course: English for IT B2 · Beyond the Code

24 lessons at B2 for software teams, in American English. A year on at Kestrel Cloud, a fictional payments startup, Iryna and her team estimate work, write docs and postmortems, argue trade-offs, give demos and negotiate scope. Each lesson starts from a real case, from the Apollo 11 alarms to Conway's law.See the course

  1. Unit 1 Planning and estimates

    estimates and deadlines: approximating numbers, the future continuous and perfect, likelihood

    1. Lesson 1It always takes longerApproximating numbers in estimates
    2. Lesson 2By New Year's Eve, we'll have fixed itFuture continuous and future perfect
    3. Lesson 3 · you're hereLet's play planning pokerLikelihood with bound to, likely to and may well

  2. Unit 2 Docs people read

    specs and design docs: modals for requirements, participle clauses, plain English

    1. Lesson 4MUST, SHOULD or MAY?Modal verbs for requirements in specs
    2. Lesson 5Four kinds of docsParticiple clauses in documentation
    3. Lesson 6Just a request for commentsPlain English for design docs

  3. Unit 3 Incidents and postmortems

    telling an incident without blame: narrative tenses, the passive, the third conditional

    1. Lesson 7The 1202 alarmNarrative tenses for incident stories
    2. Lesson 8Blameless by designActive vs passive voice in a postmortem
    3. Lesson 9If we had had an alert…The third conditional: a different past

  4. Unit 4 Architecture and trade-offs

    comparing options and recording decisions: contrast linkers, modals of deduction, mixed conditionals

    1. Lesson 10Your system copies your org chartContrast linkers for comparing options
    2. Lesson 11It's always DNSModals of deduction for troubleshooting
    3. Lesson 12Write down the whyMixed conditionals for looking back on decisions

  5. Unit 5 Demos and tech talks

    a clear structure on stage: signposting, cleft sentences, describing trends

    1. Lesson 13The mother of all demosSignposting language for demos
    2. Lesson 1420 slides, 15 secondsCleft sentences for emphasis
    3. Lesson 15Numbers that tell a storyDescribing graphs and trends

  6. Unit 6 Stakeholders and scope

    saying no and finding yes: diplomatic language, as long as and unless, negotiating

    1. Lesson 16Pay down the debtDiplomatic language for hard messages
    2. Lesson 17Why meetings argue about the bike shedAs long as, provided, unless and otherwise
    3. Lesson 18Yes, if…Negotiating language for scope and deadlines

  7. Unit 7 AI, security and ethics

    AI tools, passwords and team rules: be used to and get used to, past modals of deduction, purpose linkers

    1. Lesson 19Your new pair programmerUsed to, be used to and get used to
    2. Lesson 20Change your password? Maybe notPast modals of deduction
    3. Lesson 21Rules for AI at workPurpose linkers for rules with a reason

  8. Unit 8 Growing your career

    feedback, retros and goals: phrasal verbs, reporting verbs, wish and if only

    1. Lesson 22Your next levelCareer phrasal verbs and goal frames
    2. Lesson 23Feedback that helpsReporting verbs and their patterns
    3. Lesson 24Start, stop, continueWish and if only for wishes and regrets

Questions about this lesson

What does "may well" mean?
May well means quite likely, stronger than plain may: It may well take a week. The first part may well be a five. It takes the base verb with no to, so It may well to slip is wrong. Might well and could well work the same way. In estimates, it sits in the middle of the scale, with be likely to and there's a good chance.
How do you use "likely to" in a sentence?
Use a subject, be likely to and the base verb: We're likely to need a spike. Bugs are likely to slip into the release. After it, switch to a that-clause: It's likely that we'll need a spike. Mixing the two, as in It's likely to that…, is a common error. The negative is be unlikely to: It's unlikely to fit in this sprint.
What does "bound to" mean?
Bound to means almost certain to happen: Offline bugs are bound to show up on older phones. The refund screen is bound to break again. The full form is be bound to + base verb, and it's stronger than likely to, so keep it for things you'd bet on. In the B2 English for IT lesson Let's play planning poker on edio.ai, a developer who has fixed one screen four times calls the next bug bound to happen.
Is "be bound to" stronger than "be likely to"?
Yes: be bound to means almost certain, and be likely to means probable. Compare We're bound to need a spike, which you'd bet on, with We're likely to need a spike, which is only probable. Both take to + base verb. Be sure to and will definitely share the top of the scale with bound to; may well and there's a good chance sit with likely to.
How do you express probability in English?
Expressing probability works best on a scale from almost certain to almost certainly not: It's bound to change, It's likely to change, It may well change, There's a slim chance it'll change, It definitely won't change. Adverbs help too: will probably, probably won't. A number with a likelihood phrase makes an honest estimate, which is why Let's play planning poker, a B2 lesson on edio.ai, teaches the two together.
Where does "probably" go with will and won't?
Probably normally goes after will and before won't: It will probably be late. It probably won't be ready. Later in the sentence it sounds wrong, as in It will be probably late. Definitely and certainly take the same places: The spike will definitely take a full day. Merchants definitely won't issue refunds offline.
Is it "a good chance to finish" or "a good chance that we'll finish"?
For likelihood, use a good chance (that) and a full clause: There's a good chance we'll finish by Friday. There's a good chance that the translations already exist. A chance to finish means an opportunity, not a probability. On the same pattern, a fair chance is a little weaker than a good one, and a slim chance is a small one.
What is planning poker?
Planning poker is a card game in which a team estimates work together: everyone picks a card face down, all reveal at once, and the highest and lowest explain before the next round. Showing the cards together stops one loud voice from setting the number. James Grenning described it in 2002, and at the table you'll hear Can you talk us through your 13? and Can we all live with an 8?
How do you defend your estimate in planning poker?
Give your card, your reasons and how sure you are: I went for a 13. My main concern is the payment-links API: it's bound to change before we ship. Then say what would change your number (If they confirm the new API this week, I'll probably go down to an 8.) and suggest a spike, a split or another round. The chat in the B2 English for IT lesson Let's play planning poker on edio.ai rehearses this.
What is an outlier in planning poker?
An outlier is a value far from all the others: in a round of 3, 5, 5, 8 and 13, the 3 and the 13 are the outliers. Teams ask them to explain first (Can you talk us through your card?), because a big spread often means one player knows something the others don't. The planning poker thread in Let's play planning poker, a B2 lesson on edio.ai, starts from exactly this round.
How do you practice likelihood language with an in-company team?
Run a poker round on the team's own stories, with role cards for a developer, a tester, a designer, a product owner, a newcomer and a Scrum Master who runs the game. A card counts only with a reason and a likelihood phrase, such as It's bound to touch every screen. In this lesson, the open boxes are those role cards, built around a large-text feature.
Are there interactive exercises for likely to and bound to?
Yes: rewriting drills and chats that check every answer suit likelihood phrases. This page plays four parts of Let's play planning poker, a B2 English for IT lesson on edio.ai, with no account: a team's planning poker thread, a call in which a 3 meets a 13, a drill that rewrites notes with bound, sure, may well or probably, and a chat in which learners defend the only 13. The other drills are locked.
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